Recent conflicts have brought energy security back to the forefront. What are the main risks facing markets today?
At the beginning of the year, we had developed our scenarios assuming moderate growth in the global economy, without predicting either a sharp acceleration or a recession. The oil-related energy shock has partially altered this picture, but with very different effects depending on the geographical area.
In the United States, we continue to see a resilient economy, capable of absorbing shocks better than other regions of the world. Growth prospects have been revised slightly downward, but remain positive. The situation is different in Europe, where energy concerns are more pressing and where investments in defense and infrastructure will take time to translate into a real boost to growth.
In short, oil certainly represents a risk factor, but we don't believe it will cause a crisis comparable to those of the past. For this reason, we continue to view the global economy with confidence, while maintaining a cautious approach.
How long will this period of tension on the energy market last?
It's difficult to make precise predictions. In the early stages of a crisis, markets tend to react emotionally, then gradually recalibrate their expectations.
When it comes to oil, both supply and demand must be considered. Several producing countries still have unused production capacity, while global demand appears less dynamic than in the past. China, for example, is gradually reducing its dependence on oil thanks to the electrification of transportation and other energy policies.
For these reasons, we believe the risk of a structural shortage is limited. Rather than a supply crisis, we are experiencing a period of high volatility that could continue for some time.
Despite inflation and geopolitical tensions, the American economy continues to surprise. What are the reasons for this resilience?
«For years, economists have tended to underestimate the strength of the American economy and, above all, the extraordinary adaptability of American consumers.
A significant share of households own financial investments and benefit directly from market growth. This generates a wealth effect that supports consumption. Furthermore, the labor market remains solid, and real wages have resumed growth in recent years. It is the combination of these factors that explains why the American economy continues to demonstrate greater resilience than expected and why consumption remains the main driver of growth.
Why does your view of the United States remain more favorable than that of Europe?
«In the United States, we observe greater adaptability, more responsive economic policies, and an innovation ecosystem that continues to attract capital from around the world.
We don't have a negative view of Europe, but, all things being equal, we believe the United States currently offers a more favorable combination of growth, innovation, and the speed with which to transform opportunities into concrete results. Changing this assessment would require an acceleration of the European integration process and a greater capacity to rapidly translate political decisions into effective interventions.
Asian markets appear to be playing an increasingly important role. Where do you see the most interesting opportunities?
One of the most common mistakes in recent years has been underestimating the innovation capacity of Asia, and China in particular. The heart of the competition between the United States and China is technology. Beijing has developed world-class expertise in strategic sectors, from robotics to electric vehicles, to numerous segments of the semiconductor supply chain.
In this context, Taiwan occupies a central position. Semiconductors represent one of the essential infrastructures of the modern economy, and mastery of the most advanced technologies is a crucial element for the countries' strategic autonomy. For this reason, we maintain a positive outlook on Asian markets and the continent's most innovative companies.
Will artificial intelligence fuel inflation or be a growth driver?
In the short term, it requires huge investments in infrastructure, data centers, energy, and skills. All of this can have temporary inflationary effects.
In the medium and long term, however, the scenario will change radically. Once the investment phase is complete, artificial intelligence will enable significant increases in productivity, reducing costs and improving process efficiency. This is precisely where we see the true potential of this technological revolution: it may initially generate inflationary pressures, but over time it will become a powerful driver of disinflation.
According to Indosuez Wealth Management's assessments and approach, what principles should guide the construction of a balanced portfolio today?
The first rule is not to be guided by emotions. In recent years, we have experienced an almost continuous succession of shocks, and those who reacted emotionally to the markets have often made mistakes.
We need to maintain focus on economic fundamentals and revise some traditional models. Even government bonds no longer automatically represent the main element of portfolio stability. For this reason, we believe it is essential to further diversify sources of income and adopt more dynamic risk management.
What role do you attribute to bonds and currencies today?
Bonds remain an important component, but they must be selected more carefully. In some segments, the risk-return ratio of corporate bonds now appears more attractive than that offered by sovereign debt.
Currency risk management has also become essential. In a complex geopolitical environment, hedging at least part of the exchange rate exposure can help reduce overall portfolio volatility.
What will be the major investment trends of the coming years?
The dominant theme will be strategic autonomy. The events of recent years have demonstrated how energy, technological, and industrial dependencies can become factors of vulnerability. For this reason, we expect a significant acceleration in investments in infrastructure, energy, defense, critical technologies, and cybersecurity. These are trends that are destined to remain with us for many years and will offer significant investment opportunities.
How do you make decisions in such an uncertain environment?
"The key is discussion. No important decision should depend on just one person.
In our investment committee, every decision is collectively discussed and subjected to a rigorous evaluation process. Of course, mistakes can happen: the important thing is to quickly recognize them and adapt to change. Intellectual humility remains one of the most important qualities for those working in the investment world.
One last question about your vision of cryptocurrencies…
We maintain a prudent approach. We don't consider them a central element of our clients' wealth strategies.
Blockchain is a different story, a technology that offers extremely interesting applications in payment systems and the digitization of financial processes. We are much more interested in the potential of the underlying technology than in the highly speculative nature of cryptocurrencies.
