The Italian food sector continues to demonstrate a remarkable capacity for adaptation, even in a period characterized by economic slowdown, inflation, and international tensions. This is the picture that emerges from the twelfth edition of the Food Industry Monitor, the Observatory created by the University of Gastronomic Sciences of Pollenzo in collaboration with Ceresio Investors, presented yesterday, June 18, during the conference Comparing development models.
The survey examines over 820 Italian food companies, representing 14 production sectors and with a total turnover of approximately €85 billion. The objective is to assess the economic and financial performance of these companies, including identifying prospects for the two-year period 2026-2027.
A sector that continues to grow
After years of severe economic turbulence, the food sector confirms its solidity. Revenues are expected to increase by 3,3% in 2025, below initial expectations but still consistent with the trend of the Italian economy.
According to the researchers, the data confirms the countercyclical nature of the sector, which continues to benefit from demand for essential goods. At the same time, slowing domestic consumption and rising costs are limiting companies' ability to transform increased revenue into higher profits.
Profitability is the real issue
If revenues remain in positive territory, the situation changes when looking at profitability indicators.
Return on Sales (ROS) fell from 6,6% to 4,6%, while Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) fell from 8,9% to 5,2%. According to the Observatory, many companies have chosen to maintain market share and sales volumes even by accepting reduced margins.
Overall financial strength remains high, but a slight increase in debt is also evident, a factor that deserves attention, especially in a context characterized by still high energy costs.
Exports still crucial for growth
International trade continues to be a key driver for the Italian food industry.
Exports are projected to grow by 4,4% in 2025, a slower pace than the 8,7% increase recorded the previous year, when many operators had brought forward purchases in anticipation of possible tariff measures in the United States.
The outlook remains favorable, however. The Food Industry Monitor forecasts growth exceeding 7% annually in both 2026 and 2027, provided geopolitical tensions ease and energy costs return to lower levels.
Among the sectors likely to see the most interesting developments are flour, oil, coffee, and frozen products. Expectations are also positive for wine, supported by international demand, particularly for sparkling wines and Prosecco.
Inflation and consumption remain the main unknowns
Estimates indicate that the sector will grow by 3,3% in 2026 and 3,4% in 2027.
These figures, however, must be interpreted with inflation in mind. Next year, price increases could exceed 3%, absorbing much of the nominal growth of food companies. Analysts expect inflation to return to close to 2% only in 2027, making the market's true performance more evident.
Specialization or diversification? There's no one-size-fits-all formula.
One of the aspects examined by the Observatory concerns the business models adopted by companies.
Approximately six out of ten companies offer a range of products across multiple lines. However, the analysis shows that diversification does not automatically guarantee better results.
Indeed, looking at the period between 2018 and 2024, a slight competitive advantage emerges for companies focused on a single production line. Greater focus, in many cases, allows for the development of more specialized skills, strengthening positioning, and more efficient use of investments.
The data also reflects the structure of the Italian sector, characterized by the presence of numerous highly specialized small and medium-sized family businesses.
Governance increasingly crucial
Among the elements that emerge most clearly is the relationship between the quality of governance and economic results.
Companies with more open, organized, and inclusive management structures achieve higher levels of profitability than those with more traditional management models.
The survey also highlights how the presence of female CEOs positively contributes to both investment returns and return on equity. Benefits are also found in shared leadership models, especially when co-CEOs include women with strategic responsibilities.
Family ownership continues to distinguish the sector: 70% of the companies analyzed are owned by entrepreneurial families. Within this group, multifamily businesses perform better than single-family businesses, thanks to greater managerial openness and a better ability to manage generational turnover.
Expert assessments
For Carmine Garzia, Professor of Management and Scientific Director of the Food Industry Monitor, 2025 confirms the sector's solidity, despite a scenario characterized by weak consumption and high energy costs. He also believes that the outlook still calls for caution, given the uncertainty of international markets and inflationary trends.
Alessandro Santini, Head of Corporate & Investment Banking at Ceresio Investors It emphasizes how the progressive compression of margins and the slight increase in debt require a rethinking of companies' commercial and financial strategies. In this scenario, effective governance and generational transition management become crucial factors in sustaining long-term competitiveness.
The comparison between the protagonists of the sector
The presentation of the study brought together some of the main players in the Italian food industry.
After institutional speeches by Rector Nicola Perullo and General Manager of Banca del Ceresio SA Gabriele Corte, the research results were illustrated by Carmine Garzia.
The discussion then continued with Albiera Antinori, CEO of Marchesi Antinori, and Riccardo Illy, president of Polo del Gusto, who addressed the topics of innovation and the evolution of business models.
Angelo Mastrolia, chairman of Newlat Group and president of Princes Group, then discussed with Alessandro Santini the growth and internationalization prospects of Italian food companies.
The meeting ended with a remembrance of Carlo Petrini founder of Slow Food and the University of Gastronomic Sciences of Pollenzo, entrusted to Oscar Farinetti, president of the Association of Friends of the University of Gastronomic Sciences of Pollenzo.
