On November 5, American voters and Grand Electors signaled an unequivocal desire for policy change in key areas: an iron fist against illegal immigration; priority given to indigenous labor and national interests; the elimination of state bureaucracy and priority given to free economic initiative, especially in economic sectors with a strong innovative impact and priority in the global competition of the future.
Donald Trump's MAGA (Make America Great Again) appeal has had an electoral outcome beyond all expectations: the Republicans return to power with a clear majority in both the Senate and the House, which gives Trump political legitimacy and a great margin of action to achieve a turning point in the key areas of his policy that the balance of power during his first term had not allowed him to do.
The extent of Trump's victory is incredible if one considers that he was politically dead after the assault on Capitol Hill and the cascade of accusations and judicial convictions. But if today he finds himself in such a position of strength, this is due, more than to his own merits, to the demerits and short-sightedness of the old American liberal nomenklatura, enriched by globalization and now emaciated, incapable of grasping the deep frustration of the popular classes and the working class (the "blue collar", not only whites but also Latinos and African Americans), victims of the perverse effects of globalization.
The markets have toasted the turning point; the US has emerged (for now) strengthened even in the eyes of the autocrats who dominate the new world disorder: Xi Jin Ping, Putin, Jong Un, Erdogan, Khamanei, Bin Salman… Who find a Western leader who inspires fear like them and is therefore respected by them. Wolf does not eat wolf. It is still too early to say whether this new configuration can quickly close the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. But the era in which the US of Clinton and Biden (President of the Senate under Clinton) wanted to humiliate post-Soviet Russia by reducing it to a regional power is over.
And for several years the United States has no longer depended on Middle Eastern oil imports: it has become an exporter of shale gas. It is no coincidence that during his first term Trump promoted the so-called Abraham Accords between Israel and some Gulf countries (which Iran and Hamas feared like the plague). The Iran of the Ayatollahs (in the grip of very strong external and internal protests) has much to fear from the America of the new President Trump.
As for the Trump's US interests in Europe, they are and were already very small. One will remember President Trump's visit to Germany, when Angela Merkel asked him for more American money for defense against Russia, and he responded not very candidly that he did not understand why the US should defend Europe from Putin when Germany had made itself dependent and subject to blackmail on Russian energy supplies.
In the new global context, with Donald Trump as leader of an America that wants to become great again, to remain great by defending the supremacy of the dollar against the attempt of China and its allies to create an economic-financial counterpower and winning (also thanks to Musk) the challenge of technological hegemony with Beijing, what will be the place and bargaining power of Europe? To quote Manzoni in The Betrothed, in the new global geopolitical context, Europe presents itself as "a clay pot, forced to travel in the company of many iron pots".
Only a couple of decades ago, the European Union, economically strong thanks to the single market, the driving force of German reunification and the Franco-German tandem, had dreams of glory and imagined itself as a third pole between the USA and China. It boasted of being the guardian of human rights and of the ecological revolution, scornfully rejecting the idea of a Transatlantic Agreement with the America of wild capitalism and multinationals insensitive to environmental protection. That Europe today finds itself politically very fragile and economically on its knees, first and foremost because its nomenklatura has not taken seriously – as in America – the reasons of the working classes (just look at who overwhelmingly won the French elections: sovereignists and populists of the right and left) and the need to find concrete and concerted responses to an uncontrolled influx of migrants.
Second, European political leaders have ignored the importance of three fundamental pillars of each country's strength – its own energy supply, raw materials and autonomous defense capacity – by externalizing them and handing themselves over to the wolves, bears, dragons (and the hated Yankees) whom they verbally criticized for their failure to respect human rights and/or environmental protection.
Europe is left holding the dead bag for not having taken into account the reality of the facts and for having delegated to others vital tasks that cannot be delegated.
It is of little use to declare oneself the champion of the fight against climate change sanctioned by the Paris Agreement for the reduction of greenhouse gases if one closes nuclear power plants prematurely (which do not produce CO2) and then has to increase coal and beg the barbarian Putin for the missing gas. Just as the unilateral rush forward of European electric cars has proven to be seriously counterproductive when there are no sufficient reserves of electricity and semiconductors to support it. Establishing privileged relations with China (which has supremacy over raw materials for the electric transition) if one is then forced to raise duties against Chinese electric cars to try to save one's own automotive sector in serious crisis.
Europe has sinned by a denial of reality that today weighs on its economic crisis. But the political crisis is equally serious. The instability and weakness of the political legitimacy of the governments of the EU countries and in particular of the most populous ones (except paradoxically Italy, where the government has lasted for more than two years) is flagrant. France is in an unprecedented situation, where the President of the Republic not only does not have a majority in Parliament, but has a puppet government of conservative imprint governing that is standing (so to speak) only thanks to the renunciation of the veto by Le Pen's National Front and in spite of the accusations of betrayal by the voters of the extreme left of Mélanchon.
In Spain, a coalition led by the socialist Sanchez is governing, patched together to prevent the winner of the elections, the conservative Popular Party of Feijòo, from leading a right-wing coalition. Sanchez was able to form his government only thanks to the support of the seven pro-independence deputies of Puidgemont, already investigated for terrorism, in exchange for an amnesty for the Catalan separatists, an announcement of an amnesty that has divided the country. Spain is a politically torn country, as demonstrated by the massive street demonstrations and the violent protests against King Felipe after the floods two months ago. Poland is led by a Donald Tusk government, which has brought together a pro-European center-left coalition to oppose the winners of the elections, the sovereignist and conservative party of Jaroslaw Kaczinski who has failed to bring together a center-right coalition.
As for Germany – already split in two after the results of the elections in the Länder of the former East Germany where the nationalist right won by a landslide – the coalition comprising socialists, greens and liberals led by socialist chancellor Scholz blew up after the chancellor fired finance minister (and leader of the liberal party) Christian Lindner. We are heading towards new elections in a very tense political and economic context and a “fin de règne”. In Europe, dreams of glory have vanished. And there is apprehension that Donald Trump may soon communicate to the old and limping continent that from now on it will have to think about its own defense alone.
