By the time you read these lines, the overall picture of trade relations between Switzerland and the United States may no longer be the same. While between April and August, the customs duties unilaterally imposed by the US government on its partners had already undergone significant changes—in our case, an increase of 8 percentage points—the fall brought with it a wave of optimism, gradually strengthening the feeling that the Confederation could aspire to a 39% reduction in the rate. Who knows whether this actually happened, and whether Trump's own open-minded statements in those days will prove to be nothing more than yet another chapter in a baseless narrative.
These are hypotheses and suppositions that are difficult to weigh given the acknowledged extreme volatility of a President who, moreover, was faced, more or less at the same time, with the anticipated Supreme Court ruling on the legitimacy of these measures. A constantly evolving problem, in short, for which the definitive solution was unknown, but which, in its intermediate stage in mid-November, had nevertheless stimulated a very interesting discussion due to the different perspectives put forward by the guests.
The intertwining of the political, almost populist, dimension of the defender of American interests and the more structured, technical dimension tied to the dynamics and consequences of the trade imbalance between the United States and Switzerland—a sort of reinterpretation of the David-Goliath conflict—emerged from the very first speeches.
The teacher Elisa Volpi, a professor of political science at Franklin University in Lugano and an expert on the American situation, immediately highlighted how the strategy implemented by Trump has ultimately kept the commitment he made during the election campaign to revive the economy of a country struggling with a significant deficit and weakened in its industrial structure by the relocation of many activities to more favorable environments.
A very clear and predictable message, addressed above all to the classes that have suffered most from these contractions domestically, but also in profound conflict with the international rules that have governed global commercial activities for decades, starting with those of the World Trade Organization.
The lawyer focused on this and other legal aspects of the situation. Hector Sbandi of Deloitte, an expert in customs law, has long been involved in advising the numerous companies faced with the challenges of the new tariff landscape. This tool, in his analysis, has always been part of the world of trade and must therefore certainly be considered an additional difficulty, the impact of which can, however, be mitigated by implementing appropriate countermeasures.
Meanwhile, however, questions are being raised about the real extent of the repercussions for Ticino companies and their capacity for resilience: for Luca Albertoni, Director of the Chamber of Commerce, the response is closely linked to the type of business and product, as well as the size and market positioning of the various entities. In the first few months after the introduction of the tariffs, the cantonal economic system responded fairly robustly overall, but without significant changes in taxation, the stability of our businesses could be severely challenged within a few months.
It would have been impossible not to pay particular attention to the pharmaceutical sector: for its volumes, certainly, but also for the anomaly in Trump's treatment of what has always been indicated by many as the main…object of desire of the USA.
Piero Poli, CEO of Rivopharm and President of Pharmaindustria Ticino, he did not hide his concerns about the veritable sword of Damocles hanging over the sector—the threat of a 100% rate, though currently frozen—but at the same time issued a strong call for optimism, recalling the significant challenges that industries have faced on a regular basis over the years, most recently the pandemic. In his remarks, he also touched on the current strength of the Swiss franc, which allows for a partial recovery in raw material purchases, and the potential relocation of companies. on American soil: an option that the major market players have already partially implemented for some time but which would prove very problematic for smaller companies.
On this very point, the speakers shared their general doubts about the actual feasibility of this option, given the bureaucratic obstacles and the difficulties in finding qualified labor for a complete relocation to the US or other countries. These considerations should not be underestimated, even for restructuring or partial changes in the production chain or financial flows. The rules of the game, at least those everyone knows and respects, do not seem so easy to overturn!
Is it better then to trust in politics and its ability to re-establish better framework conditions for all? Politics, yes... There has been no shortage of critical comments on the subject: from those of Alfonso Tuor, political and economic journalist, attentive observer of the changes on the world chessboard who proposed a reading of the problem from the macro perspective of the European economic slowdown and the position of China, to those of Marco Olivier Tepoorten, owner of the customs and logistics operator Franzosini, who also highlighted the profound contradiction between the Confederation's recent decision to abolish tariffs on almost all goods and the forceful intervention of the US administration.
While not without some reservations about the appropriateness of the well-publicized mission of six private entrepreneurs who met with Donald Trump—seeming in this initiative a certain distrust of institutional channels and the potential risk of excessive concessions to their interlocutor—and not sparing even some scathing allusions to the Federal Council's embarrassments in previous contacts with the White House, the roundtable participants agreed on several conclusions: the global market demands increasingly precise, targeted approaches, and future relations with the United States, regardless of who leads the country in a few years, cannot ignore the awareness that Asia will play an increasingly central role compared to Europe. With all that this entails. Now, however, we are primarily interested in knowing how the tariffs will play out…
Ticino's Future: History, Visions, and Optimism... by the State
