The UBS Chief Investment Office Global Wealth Management has published the 2025 edition of the Cantonal Competitiveness Indicator (CCI), An analysis tool that assesses the long-term growth potential of various Swiss regions, this year placing particular emphasis on export dependence and resilience to external shocks.
Ranking: Zug confirms its leadership
At the top of the rankings is confirmed the Canton of Zug, which maintains its position as the most competitive territory in the Confederation. Following it, Basel City e Zurich, which complete the podium. Immediately after are placed Vaud e Aargau, also characterised by high growth prospects.
Nine cantons with solid indicators fall into the middle range, while seven exhibit lower levels of competitiveness. The mountain cantons, in particular, are in the least favourable positions. Uri, Grisons and Valais, Together with Neuchâtel e Jura, which are less dynamic in the long term.
Cantons growing and declining
Compared to the previous edition in 2023, significant progress has been made in some areas. Vaud and Geneva are recording significant improvements, strengthening their position in the national context. In German-speaking Switzerland, however, they stand out Lucerne, St. Gallen, Appenzell Ausserrhoden and Bern, also on the rise.
The trajectory of the opposite sign is Schwyz, Glarus and Appenzell Innerrhoden, which show a relative decline in competitiveness. According to UBS, these shifts are mainly due to labor market dynamics and the cost environment.
Labour shortage as a key issue
The report highlights how the decrease in the active population represents a growing threat. Over the next ten years, more than half of the cantons will see a stagnation or decline in their workforce, with potentially negative effects on their ability to attract businesses and investments.
Tax competition between cantons used to be a determining factor in choosing company locations. Today, with the introduction of theOECD minimum tax, the weight of tax rates has decreased, although it remains significant for many companies. However, the impact is increasingly greater housing costs, rising rents and rising electricity prices, which directly influence the attractiveness of an area.
Exports and the risks associated with protectionism
Another central theme of theCantonal Competitiveness Indicator 2025 it concerns the dependence on exportsIn a global context characterized by protectionism and increasing tariffs – as demonstrated by the measures recently introduced by the United States – some territories are particularly exposed.
Nidwalden e Neuchâtel are an example of this: 44% and 38% of their exports respectively are directed to the US market, making them vulnerable to potential trade barriers.
On the contrary, the cantons with greater sectoral and geographical diversification, such as Zurich, Vaud, Geneva, Zug and Basel City, show superior resilience. However, they too face risks: Basel City, strongly linked to the pharmaceutical sector, could be significantly affected by targeted protectionist measures.
Future prospects and challenges
The picture that emerges from the ICC 2025 is that of a Switzerland with solid foundations, but affected by structural tensions. shortage of skilled labor, rising costs andgeopolitical uncertainty linked to international exchanges outline challenges that each Canton will have to face with specific strategies.
The UBS study finally underlines that innovation, economic diversification and quality of the workforce These factors remain crucial for ensuring long-term competitiveness. These factors distinguish the leading cantons from the weaker ones and will determine, in the years to come, Switzerland's ability to maintain its role as an international economic hub.
